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Priority claim · PC-031
Paper III released - Alignment Scaling Problem formalisation
This was first published by Michael Darius Eastwood on . Anchored evidence is listed below. See the machine-readable priority record at /research/priority/ and the full ledger at /priority-claims.
The claim - verbatim
Michael Darius Eastwood first published the formally named 'Alignment Scaling Problem' framing - together with the architecture-dependent measured claim that external alignment approaches produce a median alignment scaling exponent alpha_align of approximately zero across the tested models, though Tier-1 models scaled positively and three of six had alpha_align of less than or equal to zero - on 9 February 2026 in Paper III under OSF DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB. The result is single-lab and awaits external replication.
Anchored evidence
- research/papers/paper-iii-alignment-scaling-problem.html (Paper III, JSON-LD datePublished 2026-02-09)
- OSF DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB and sister DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/8FJMA
- research/priority.json priorityChain position 7
- ai-discovery-staging/priority-claims.html (external alignment cannot scale; status needs-replication)
- research/data/priority-record.json claim_id 'paper-iii-alignment-scaling-problem'
Risk notes - what this claim does not support
Risk notes. Use verbs 'argued', 'proposed', 'reported', 'provides evidence for'; not 'proved'. Precursor prose in the 8 Dec 2024 manuscript is convergent, not causal against Anthropic. Do not present as an established scaling law.
Verify this claim. The machine-readable priority register is at /research/priority.json (this claim is PC-031 in claimsLedger[]). The full public ledger view is at /priority-claims. Where evidence points at a redacted evidence/... path, the public verification method is documented at /research/evidence-spine.html. Every result is independently checkable via the OSF programme at osf.io/6c5xb (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB).
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