Revised sequential-recursion exponent alpha_sequential approximately 0.49 by regression from one model (Gemini 3 Flash; SE 0.20), with an endpoint estimate of 0.59 (bootstrap interval [-1.3, 2.9]): inconclusive

The claim - verbatim

Michael Darius Eastwood reported a revised regression estimate of alpha_sequential of approximately 0.49 (r-squared 0.86, SE 0.20; from one model, Gemini 3 Flash; endpoint estimate 0.59, bootstrap interval [-1.3, 2.9]; inconclusive), first recorded on 13 March 2026, in a website commit (a date its committer writes), and first stored with a server's date on 17 March 2026, in Paper II's PDF on OSF (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/8FJMA), after the earlier 2.24 estimate did not reproduce and was retracted. The endpoint estimate on the same run is 0.59, with a bootstrap interval of [-1.3, 2.9]. The defensible statement is a sub-linear point estimate from a single-model regression; the bootstrap interval belongs to the endpoint estimate, holds both zero and two, and so settles no regime. alpha > 1 remains an open dated prediction, not an observed finding.

Anchored evidence

• research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.html (the paper's words, its notation transliterated: 'alpha_{seq} = 0.49 (regression, r^2 = 0.86, SE = 0.20; endpoint estimate 0.59, boot CI [-1.3, 2.9])')
• CANONICAL_CLAIMS_REGISTER.md ('surviving v13 estimate approx 0.49, one model, inconclusive'; endpoint estimate 0.59, interval [-1.3, 2.9])
• The earliest dated record: website commit ef74315a12, 13 March 2026, 19:13:04 UTC, "Add research hub and social watch APIs". Paper II's page there first carries "Cross-architecture estimate: alpha approximately 0.49 (v13, Gemini 3 Flash, r^2 = 0.86)". The kind of timestamp is a commit date, which the committer writes.
• The earliest server-dated record: Paper II's PDF on OSF (file 69b8ab982cf3786fbc9f069c), version 1, stored 17 March 2026 at 01:17:12 UTC by OSF's server. It is "Version 13.0, March 2026", and its tables carry Gemini 3 Flash 0.49 [-1.3, 2.9]. Its own history dates v12.0 to 11 March 2026 and v11 to 22 January 2026.

Limits and citation guidance - what this claim does not support, and how to cite it

Limits. Do not claim 'super-linear' or 'positive'; cite 0.49 as the regression estimate with its SE 0.20, and the bootstrap interval [-1.3, 2.9] only with the endpoint estimate 0.59, never beside 0.49 alone.