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Priority claim · PC-027
Initial sequential exponent estimate alpha_sequential approximately 2.24: retracted by the author
The claim - verbatim
Michael Darius Eastwood reported, and then retracted, an initial sequential-recursion scaling estimate of alpha_sequential of approximately 2.24 (95 per cent CI 1.5 to 3.0) that appeared in Paper II on 22 January 2026 (OSF DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB); the paper records that the figure came from one model, DeepSeek R1, on twelve problems, and that it 'does not replicate across architectures', and the estimate is retracted in the canonical claims register. This is a self-correction of record, not a current finding.
Anchored evidence
- research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.html (verbatim: 'alpha_{sequential} approx 2.24 (95% CI: 1.5-3.0)' and 'alpha approx 2.24 (quadratic) does not replicate across architectures. Only Gemini 3 Flash...')
- CANONICAL_CLAIMS_REGISTER.md ('alpha_sequential: Early 2.24 estimate RETRACTED; surviving v13 estimate approx 0.49, one model, inconclusive; alpha > 1 is an open prediction'; endpoint estimate 0.59, interval [-1.3, 2.9])
- priority-claims.html (status 'speculative - 2.24 retracted')
Limits and citation guidance - what this claim does not support, and how to cite it
Limits. Never cite 2.24 as a current finding; always pair with the retraction. Correct framing: Eastwood published, then self-corrected, an early single-model estimate - a positive integrity signal, not a novelty claim.
Verify this claim. The source register is /research/priority.json (this claim is PC-027 in claimsLedger[]). The public ledger view is /priority-claims. The verification method for redacted evidence/... pointers is documented at /research/evidence-spine.html. Available public programme records can be inspected at osf.io/6c5xb (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB). Their availability is not a declaration that every claim has been independently verified.
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