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Priority claim · PC-027
Initial sequential exponent estimate alpha_sequential approximately 2.24 - formally retracted
This was first published by Michael Darius Eastwood on . Anchored evidence is listed below. See the machine-readable priority record at /research/priority/ and the full ledger at /priority-claims.
The claim - verbatim
Michael Darius Eastwood reported, and then formally retracted, an initial sequential-recursion scaling estimate of alpha_sequential of approximately 2.24 (95 per cent CI 1.5 to 3.0) that appeared in Paper II on 22 January 2026 (OSF DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB); the paper text itself records that the figure was drawn from Gemini 3 Flash and 'does not replicate across architectures', and the estimate is now retracted in the canonical claims register. This is a self-correction of record, not a current finding.
Anchored evidence
- research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.html (verbatim: 'alpha_{sequential} approx 2.24 (95% CI: 1.5-3.0)' and 'alpha approx 2.24 (quadratic) does not replicate across architectures. Only Gemini 3 Flash...')
- CANONICAL_CLAIMS_REGISTER.md ('alpha_sequential: Early 2.24 estimate RETRACTED; robust v13 approx 0.49 (sub-linear); alpha > 1 is an open pre-registered prediction')
- ai-discovery-staging/priority-claims.html (status 'speculative - 2.24 retracted')
Risk notes - what this claim does not support
Risk notes. Never cite 2.24 as a current finding; always pair with the retraction. Correct framing: Eastwood published, then self-corrected, an early single-model estimate - a positive integrity signal, not a novelty claim.
Verify this claim. The machine-readable priority register is at /research/priority.json (this claim is PC-027 in claimsLedger[]). The full public ledger view is at /priority-claims. Where evidence points at a redacted evidence/... path, the public verification method is documented at /research/evidence-spine.html. Every result is independently checkable via the OSF programme at osf.io/6c5xb (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB).
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