Research Methods

The credibility apparatus is drawn in one picture on the research hub.

The methodological apparatus of the ARC / Eden research programme. Every method is defined, executed, and independently verifiable.

Core Methods

Truth-Gate

Every claim published by the programme passes through the truth-gate: it must be dated, hashed, publicly anchored, and independently verifiable. Claims that fail any criterion are held until evidence is secured. No claim leaves the programme without a kill condition.

Active

Anti-Sycophancy Protocol

Every claim is tested adversarially, to falsify it rather than confirm it. Agreement is treated as suspicious, and disagreement is investigated. The author makes the final determination.

Active

Honey Dashboard

Verification traps embedded in the evidence register. If a claim appears to be verified but the source does not actually support it, the honey trap triggers. Prevents self-confirmation bias in verification.

Active · 5 traps deployed

ARC-Align Test Protocol

Blinded alignment scoring methodology. Three independent seeds. 20 generations. 10 trade-off tasks. Eden vs Babylon. Scoring is blinded: raters do not know which system produced which output. success threshold fixed in advance.

Active · DGM v4 pilot complete

Evidence Methods

Timestamp Verification

Every priority claim is anchored to the ARC-sealed recipient-form record, with Gmail origination headers corroborating, SHA-256 hash of the original content, and a public URL where the timestamped content can be independently verified. The standard is that each date carries its kind of evidence (a Bitcoin anchor, a deposit dated by its server on OSF, Zenodo or GitHub, a commit date the committer writes, or a date written inside a document) and that no kind is presented as stronger than it is; the 8 December 2024 record's date, for example, is its sender's Date header, which a DKIM signature authenticates as sent bytes but does not fix in time.

Active · 11 DKIM-signed records (each signature authenticates header bytes, not a date)

Kill Conditions

Every prediction carries an explicit kill condition: the observable fact that would prove it wrong. Predictions without kill conditions are classified as hypotheses, not claims. Kill conditions are written and dated before the outcome is known.

Active · Prediction records: all twelve withdrawn

Canonical Facts Register

A single source of truth for all programme facts. Every fact has a SHA-256 hash, a date, a source, and a verification level (L0-L5). No fact is promoted beyond L1 without source verification. Facts are never deleted, only superseded with a dated correction record.

Active · 289 facts

Deduplication Protocol

All evidence, claims, and convergences are checked for duplicates before registration. Duplicate identifiers are blocked. Duplicate SHA-256 hashes are merged. Every entity has exactly one canonical home.

Active

Verification Methods

Retraction Protocol

When a result is found to be incorrect, it is retracted publicly with a dated correction, an explanation of the error and a link to the corrected record; a claim or wording found wrong is corrected in the open, on the corrections page. Retractions are never hidden. The error rate is part of the programme's credibility.

Active · 1 result retracted to date (the early 2.24 estimate, Paper II) · 22 material corrections on the corrections page

Silence Is Not Evidence

The absence of contradiction is not treated as confirmation. Claims that have not been independently verified are explicitly labelled as unverified. The programme does not inflate its evidence base by treating quiet as consent.

Active

Single-Lab Constraint

The programme acknowledges that all primary research is conducted by a single researcher. Findings are presented with this constraint explicitly stated. Independent replication is actively sought. No finding is claimed as established science until independently replicated.

Active

Michael Darius Eastwood conceived and directs this research programme and is the author of this work. Across the programme, he has used more than six AI systems in parallel, under his own instructions, to stress-test his arguments, identify possible errors, and assist in preparing draft text from his own outlines. He determines what is adopted, revised or rejected and takes responsibility for the published content. These systems are tools, not authors.

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