← Predictions register under audit
Recursive AI Agent Workforce
By 2028, autonomous AI agents handling multi-step tasks will constitute >10% of digital knowledge work, with recursive self-improvement capabilities.
The previous Predictions Observatory has been withdrawn while its dates and scoring rules are audited. Historical entries mixed source-visible dates, retrospective similarities and heterogeneous outcome classes. All twelve entries asserted a public date of 1 October 2024 for which no immutable source was located.
An entry will return only when it has frozen wording, an independently verifiable public date, a defined time horizon, a base-rate assessment, a prospective resolution rule fixed before the outcome, a named adjudicator and an append-only correction history. No withdrawn entry is counted as confirmed, and none carries evidential weight anywhere on this site.
Entries remain visible for correction history only. See corrections.
Falsification criteria
- If by 2028, AI agents handle <5% of knowledge work, this is falsified
- If agents plateau without recursive improvement capabilities, this is weakened
- Measurement: Survey of Fortune 500 companies on AI agent deployment
Supporting evidence
- Anthropic launches Claude Computer Use 2024-10-22
- OpenAI Operator launch 2025-01-23
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2026-01-01 Agent adoption rate check