Quantum Error Correction Threshold
Practical quantum error correction enabling fault-tolerant quantum computing will be achieved by 2030, but quantum supremacy for AI training will not occur until 2035+.
75% confidence
Shareable summaryGoogle Willow's quantum error correction breakthrough supports the book's quantum computing timeline.
Falsification criteria
- If quantum error correction is not achieved by 2030, first part is falsified
- If quantum supremacy for AI training is achieved before 2035, second part is falsified
- Threshold: Error correction must achieve logical qubit error rate <10⁻⁶
Supporting evidence
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Google Willow achieves below-threshold quantum error correction
2024-12-09
Major milestone toward fault-tolerant quantum computing
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2027-01-01 Error correction progress check
- 2030-01-01 First part resolution