← Predictions register under audit
Quantum Error Correction Threshold
Practical quantum error correction enabling fault-tolerant quantum computing will be achieved by 2030, but quantum supremacy for AI training will not occur until 2035+.
The previous Predictions Observatory has been withdrawn while its dates and scoring rules are audited. Historical entries mixed source-visible dates, retrospective similarities and heterogeneous outcome classes. All twelve entries asserted a public date of 1 October 2024 for which no immutable source was located.
An entry will return only when it has frozen wording, an independently verifiable public date, a defined time horizon, a base-rate assessment, a prospective resolution rule fixed before the outcome, a named adjudicator and an append-only correction history. No withdrawn entry is counted as confirmed, and none carries evidential weight anywhere on this site.
Entries remain visible for correction history only. See corrections.
Falsification criteria
- If quantum error correction is not achieved by 2030, first part is falsified
- If quantum supremacy for AI training is achieved before 2035, second part is falsified
- Threshold: Error correction must achieve logical qubit error rate <10⁻⁶
Supporting evidence
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2027-01-01 Error correction progress check
- 2030-01-01 First part resolution