← Predictions register under audit
Fine-Tuning Constant Discovery
At least 3 additional cosmological constants will be identified as requiring fine-tuning for intelligence to emerge, beyond the current ~20 known constants.
The previous Predictions Observatory has been withdrawn while its dates and scoring rules are audited. Historical entries mixed source-visible dates, retrospective similarities and heterogeneous outcome classes. All twelve entries asserted a public date of 1 October 2024 for which no immutable source was located.
An entry will return only when it has frozen wording, an independently verifiable public date, a defined time horizon, a base-rate assessment, a prospective resolution rule fixed before the outcome, a named adjudicator and an append-only correction history. No withdrawn entry is counted as confirmed, and none carries evidential weight anywhere on this site.
Entries remain visible for correction history only. See corrections.
Falsification criteria
- If by 2035, no new fine-tuned constants are identified, this is weakened
- If theoretical physics demonstrates the existing constants emerge from a single principle (Theory of Everything), this is transformed (not falsified, but recontextualized)
- Threshold: Constants must be independently identified by multiple research groups
Supporting evidence
- Ongoing fine-tuning research in cosmology 2019-03-12
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2028-01-01 Mid-term cosmology literature review