Constitutional AI Adoption
By 2028, at least 3 of the top 5 AI labs will adopt constitutional/principle-based alignment approaches as their primary safety methodology.
75% confidence
Shareable summaryThe Eden Protocol predicted constitutional AI would become standard. Anthropic and DeepMind have already adopted it.
Falsification criteria
- If by 2028, fewer than 3 top labs use constitutional approaches, this is falsified
- If a fundamentally different paradigm dominates (e.g., pure interpretability, formal verification), this is partially falsified
- Measurement: Examine published safety methodologies of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, xAI
Supporting evidence
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Anthropic's Constitutional AI methodology
2023-05-09
First major implementation of constitutional approach
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Google DeepMind's principles-based Gemini safety
2024-02-08
Second major lab adopting similar approach
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2026-01-01 Mid-term assessment