Consciousness Measurement Failure
No scientific consensus on AI consciousness measurement will emerge before 2035, due to the fundamental unsolvability of the hard problem.
65% confidence
Shareable summaryThe hard problem of consciousness will prevent AI consciousness measurement for at least a decade.
Falsification criteria
- If a widely-accepted, empirically validated consciousness test emerges before 2035, this is falsified
- If neuroscience achieves consensus on biological consciousness mechanisms that translate to AI, this is falsified
- Threshold: Consensus means >80% agreement among relevant researchers
Supporting evidence
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Ongoing debate among consciousness researchers
2024-01-15
No convergence on fundamental theories
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2028-01-01 Mid-term assessment of consciousness science
- 2032-01-01 Pre-resolution check