← Predictions register under audit
Consciousness Measurement Failure
No scientific consensus on AI consciousness measurement will emerge before 2035, due to the fundamental unsolvability of the hard problem.
The previous Predictions Observatory has been withdrawn while its dates and scoring rules are audited. Historical entries mixed source-visible dates, retrospective similarities and heterogeneous outcome classes. All twelve entries asserted a public date of 1 October 2024 for which no immutable source was located.
An entry will return only when it has frozen wording, an independently verifiable public date, a defined time horizon, a base-rate assessment, a prospective resolution rule fixed before the outcome, a named adjudicator and an append-only correction history. No withdrawn entry is counted as confirmed, and none carries evidential weight anywhere on this site.
Entries remain visible for correction history only. See corrections.
Falsification criteria
- If a widely-accepted, empirically validated consciousness test emerges before 2035, this is falsified
- If neuroscience achieves consensus on biological consciousness mechanisms that translate to AI, this is falsified
- Threshold: Consensus means >80% agreement among relevant researchers
Supporting evidence
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2028-01-01 Mid-term assessment of consciousness science
- 2032-01-01 Pre-resolution check