← Predictions register under audit
Semiconductor Chokepoint Persistence
The semiconductor manufacturing chokepoint (TSMC, ASML, Samsung) will remain concentrated through 2030, with no viable alternative achieving >10% market share in advanced nodes.
The previous Predictions Observatory has been withdrawn while its dates and scoring rules are audited. Historical entries mixed source-visible dates, retrospective similarities and heterogeneous outcome classes. All twelve entries asserted a public date of 1 October 2024 for which no immutable source was located.
An entry will return only when it has frozen wording, an independently verifiable public date, a defined time horizon, a base-rate assessment, a prospective resolution rule fixed before the outcome, a named adjudicator and an append-only correction history. No withdrawn entry is counted as confirmed, and none carries evidential weight anywhere on this site.
Entries remain visible for correction history only. See corrections.
Falsification criteria
- If any new entrant achieves >10% share in sub-7nm chips by 2030, this is falsified
- If China achieves domestic EUV lithography at scale before 2030, this is falsified
- If Intel successfully recaptures >15% foundry market share, this is weakened
Supporting evidence
- TSMC maintains 90%+ advanced chip market share 2024-09-01
- ASML maintains 100% EUV lithography monopoly 2024-12-01
Contradicting evidence
-
China claims domestic EUV progress
2024-12-15
Early-stage development, not yet at scale
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2026-01-01 Intel foundry progress check
- 2028-01-01 China EUV progress check