← Predictions register under audit
ARC Principle Equation (U = I × R²) Validation
The relationship U = I × R² (Understanding = Intelligence × Recursion²) will be empirically validated through AI benchmark analysis showing quadratic scaling with recursive depth.
The previous Predictions Observatory has been withdrawn while its dates and scoring rules are audited. Historical entries mixed source-visible dates, retrospective similarities and heterogeneous outcome classes. All twelve entries asserted a public date of 1 October 2024 for which no immutable source was located.
An entry will return only when it has frozen wording, an independently verifiable public date, a defined time horizon, a base-rate assessment, a prospective resolution rule fixed before the outcome, a named adjudicator and an append-only correction history. No withdrawn entry is counted as confirmed, and none carries evidential weight anywhere on this site.
Entries remain visible for correction history only. See corrections.
Falsification criteria
- If analysis shows linear (not quadratic) scaling with recursive depth, this is falsified
- If no consistent relationship between recursion depth and capability is found, this is falsified
- Threshold: R² correlation coefficient must be >0.85 for strong support
Supporting evidence
Timeline
- Made public
- Expected resolution
Checkpoints
- 2025-06-01 Collect more model performance data
- 2026-06-01 Preliminary regression analysis