Appendix D: Timeline of Key Developments
December 2024 – January 2026
December 2024
December 9: Google announces Willow quantum chip with below-threshold error correction.
December 17: Anthropic publishes alignment faking research (78% rate).
December 20: OpenAI announces o3 achieving 87.5% on ARC-AGI.
December 27: DeepSeek releases V3, matching GPT-4o at fraction of cost.
January 2025
January 2025: Sam Altman declares 'We are now confident we know how to build AGI.'
January 20: DeepSeek R1 released, becomes most-downloaded iOS app.
January 2025: Anthropic releases Constitutional Classifiers (86% → 4.4% jailbreak rate).
April 2024
April 19: Future of Humanity Institute closes after ~19 years.
April 2025
April 16: OpenAI publicly releases o3.
April 24: Anthropic launches Model Welfare Program.
April–June: COGITATE consciousness study results published in Nature.
May 2025
May 22: Claude 4 family released; Opus 4 first model at ASL-3.
August 2025
August 7: GPT-5 released.
August 2025: Sam Altman calls AGI 'not a super useful term.'
October 2025
October 22: Google publishes 'Quantum Echoes' paper in Nature.
November 2025
November 18: Gemini 3 Pro released, first model to cross 1500 Elo.
November 24: Claude Opus 4.5 released.
November 30: MIRI announces strategic pivot, calls approach 'extremely unlikely to succeed.'
December 2025
December 1–2: OpenAI declares 'Code Red' in response to Gemini 3.
December 4: Gemini 3 Deep Think released (45.1% on ARC-AGI-2).
December 16: GPT-5.2 released.
December 24: Sam Altman suggests AGI may have already arrived.
December 28: Geoffrey Hinton CNN interview (10–20% takeover probability).
January 2026
January 6: Infinite Architects published.