Michael Darius Eastwood - Independent AI alignment researcher

Published 29 July 2026

Prediction Checkpoint: Test-Time Compute Dominance — Mid-2026 Assessment

Assessment of the test-time compute prediction: is inference-time scaling overtaking pre-training as the dominant capability driver?

Part of the ARC-Eden research programme. Anchored by Infinite Architects (ISBN 978-1806056200, 2 January 2026) and the 23-paper OSF suite (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB). Evidence anchored: 8 December 2024 manuscript (SHA-256: f0d1f38f).

References

• Priority claims ledger
• Predictions Observatory
• Research paper suite
• Concept index

Cite

Eastwood, M. D. (2026). "Prediction Checkpoint: Test-Time Compute Dominance — Mid-2026 Assessment." https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/blog/prediction-test-time-compute-mid-2026-checkpoint.html

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