cff-version: 1.2.0
version: '1.102'
message: 'If you use or discuss this registration, please cite it using this metadata.'
title: 'The ARC Theory · Theory-Level Predictions for Recursive Self-Improvement and AI Alignment: Twenty-Two Severable Propositions Registered Before Any Admissible Confirmatory Outcome'
authors:
  - family-names: 'Eastwood'
    given-names: 'Michael Darius'
    orcid: 'https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3222-7442'
date-released: '2026-09-13'
url: 'https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/arc-theory-predictions-registration.html'
license: 'CC-BY-4.0'
identifiers:
  - type: doi
    value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/P8CKQ'
    description: 'registration DOI for this registration (arc-theory-predictions-registration)'
  - type: doi
    value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB'
    description: 'OSF umbrella DOI for the ARC / Eden Research Programme'
preferred-citation:
  type: report
  title: 'The ARC Theory · Theory-Level Predictions for Recursive Self-Improvement and AI Alignment: Twenty-Two Severable Propositions Registered Before Any Admissible Confirmatory Outcome'
  authors:
    - family-names: 'Eastwood'
      given-names: 'Michael Darius'
      orcid: 'https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3222-7442'
  date-published: '2026-09-08'
  url: 'https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/arc-theory-predictions-registration.html'
  doi: '10.17605/OSF.IO/P8CKQ'
  identifiers:
    - type: doi
      value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/P8CKQ'
      description: 'registration DOI for this registration (arc-theory-predictions-registration)'
    - type: doi
      value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB'
      description: 'OSF umbrella DOI for the ARC / Eden Research Programme'
  abstract: |
    This is the registered text of a theory-level registration: twenty-two predictions about systems that improve themselves, and in particular about whether the correction that holds such a system to its specification can keep pace as its capability rises. Each prediction is stated with the circumstances it is claimed to hold under, the observation that would show it false, what falls with it if it fails, whether any instrument exists today that could decide it, and the author’s confidence or his refusal to give one. The wording was fixed on a public registry before any outcome was examined against it. Nothing here is a result.

    This is a registration record and is not a paper; it is not counted in the paper series.

# --- generated-from-master ---
# master_path: research/papers/arc-theory-predictions-registration.html
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# builder: scripts/build-paper-cff.py
# A check tool re-hashing master_path can decide freshness without any
# external state. If the master's current SHA-256 does not match
# master_sha256, this file is stale and must not be published:
# regenerate first with `python3 scripts/build-paper-cff.py --slug arc-theory-predictions-registration`.