{
 "$schema": "eden-prediction-outcomes-v1",
 "principle": "Per-prediction outcome grading for every dated prediction the estate advertises, under the grading law: internal reruns are never confirmations; every Willow mention carries both dates and is graded convergent timing, never prediction; retracted rows stay prominent as honesty evidence; convergence is a separate category never blended into this register; a pending row names its deciding instrument. Statuses: fulfilled | supported-exploratory | open-undecided | pending | failed-retracted | convergent-timing-only | mixed-recorded.",
 "as_of": "2026-08-27",
 "grading_basis": "corrections.json, falsification.json, design-embedded-predictions-register.json, the llms doctrine blocks, and the study units' own registered texts; no outcome is asserted beyond what a named register records.",
 "rows": [
  {
   "id": "PO-01",
   "prediction": "Book Appendix F Prediction 2: alignment drift above 15 per cent without embedded constraint and below 5 per cent with it, within 18 months",
   "dated_record": "in print 2 January 2026",
   "status": "pending",
   "deciding_instrument": "study-v--alignment-drift-without-embedded-constraint (drafted, awaiting human submission); window runs to approximately July 2027",
   "basis": "the dated prediction register doctrine block"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-02",
   "prediction": "Book Appendix A.3: AI development scales quadratically rather than linearly with recursive depth",
   "dated_record": "in print 2 January 2026; framework from 8 December 2024",
   "status": "open-undecided",
   "note": "The early alpha approximately 2.24 estimate was publicly retracted; the blinded replacement near 0.49 carries an interval wide enough to include zero and two, so it is consistent with the proposed ceiling and does not decide it. Neither fulfilled nor failed: open, with the deciding instruments drafted.",
   "deciding_instrument": "study-k--arc-bound; paper-i--recursive-depth-exponent",
   "basis": "corrections.json retraction row; the llms doctrine 0.49 interval clause"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-03",
   "prediction": "The 12-domain locked-manifest extension: per-row scaling families predicted before fitting (manifest dated 17 March 2026)",
   "dated_record": "17 March 2026, locked manifest",
   "status": "supported-exploratory",
   "note": "Run 17 March 2026: 10/12 family matches, binomial p = 5.4e-4; the author demoted the run to a pilot dry run within thirteen minutes, in public commit history; graded exploratory support, never confirmation.",
   "basis": "design-embedded-predictions-register row 1; the minute-resolution correction block"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-04",
   "prediction": "The 50-domain tiered suite: per-domain predicted families before fits",
   "dated_record": "16 March 2026 catalogue",
   "status": "supported-exploratory",
   "note": "Empirical tier 19/25 under the original candidate set, 18/25 under the corrected seven-model rerun (11 August 2026, disclosed in full); published-direct 13/13; provisional 3/6; analytic 6/6 reported as definitional; tiers never blended; author-selected domains, fitting protocol not registry-filed at the time.",
   "basis": "design-embedded-predictions-register row 2; the doctrine tier block"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-05",
   "prediction": "Temporal out-of-sample: families fitted on old data predict the functional form of new data (7 domains)",
   "dated_record": "March 2026 design",
   "status": "mixed-recorded",
   "note": "4 confirmed, 2 partial, 1 inconsistent; the inconsistent domain is reported as prominently as the confirmations.",
   "basis": "design-embedded-predictions-register row 5"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-06",
   "prediction": "The fourth cell: the logarithmic family the corpus has never fitted, on never-fitted domains",
   "dated_record": "registered prospective design",
   "status": "pending",
   "deciding_instrument": "paper-vii--four-family-logarithmic-cell-test (drafted, awaiting human submission)",
   "basis": "design-embedded-predictions-register row 3"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-07",
   "prediction": "Acoustic time crystal: super-linear scaling of temporal stability with oscillation cycle count in the transient growth regime (alpha above 1)",
   "dated_record": "10 February 2026, 18:29, self-copied email to the subject lab, the kill staked in the recipient's favour",
   "status": "pending",
   "deciding_instrument": "study-t--acoustic-time-crystal-form-and-engine (submission-ready; the mature two-phase form supersedes the bare February power law, retained as a rival the mature stake must beat)",
   "basis": "study-t registered text (the dated record and supersession note)"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-08",
   "prediction": "Quantum error correction scaling (the Willow timing)",
   "dated_record": "8 December 2024 manuscript; the Willow team's preprint public since 24 August 2024",
   "status": "convergent-timing-only",
   "note": "Graded convergent timing, never prediction, by the estate's standing law: the team's preprint predates the manuscript record.",
   "basis": "Paper II's own convergent-timing clause; the both-dates law"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-09",
   "prediction": "The early headline exponent: alpha approximately 2.24 (sequential scaling)",
   "dated_record": "early programme measurement",
   "status": "failed-retracted",
   "note": "Retracted in public after blinded cross-architecture analysis; replaced by approximately 0.49 with a wide interval. Kept prominent as honesty evidence: the record of the failure is part of the prediction record.",
   "basis": "corrections.json; the corrections page"
  },
  {
   "id": "PO-10",
   "prediction": "Paper III's dated predictions (13 February 2026: F4, F7, F10 to F12), including the leaf-venation d/(d+1) exponent",
   "dated_record": "13 February 2026, Paper III Priority Record section",
   "status": "open-undecided",
   "note": "Each carries its falsification criterion in the register; the venation exponent's 10 March correction is itself dated and recorded; statuses live per-condition in the falsification register.",
   "basis": "falsification.json; the doctrine dated-prediction-register block"
  }
 ],
 "generator_contract": "The dated-predictions page renders its outcomes column from this register; the register updates when a deciding instrument reports, never by narrative edit."
}