{ "schemaVersion": 2, "registerId": "mde-claim-falsification-v2", "dateModified": "2026-09-05", "description": "Machine-readable falsification coverage for the priority ledger plus the complete set of 44 kill conditions already published on the Falsification Dashboard. An OPEN condition has not fired; it is not evidence that a proposition is supported.", "summary": { "claims": 41, "specified": 4, "notSpecified": 37, "publishedKillConditions": 44, "claimsLinkedToPublishedConditions": 4, "publishedStatusCounts": { "open": 34, "partial": 2, "retracted": 1, "open-formal-consistency": 1, "speculative": 1, "descriptive": 1, "untested": 4 } }, "sourcePage": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/evidence-portal/falsification.html", "statusSemantics": { "open": "The kill condition has not fired. This is not evidence that the claim is supported.", "open-formal-consistency": "Related formal work is consistent with the premise; consistency is not validation of this programme.", "partial": "Mixed or null results are published.", "retracted": "The condition fired against the original formulation and the correction remains public.", "speculative": "Non-empirical by design.", "descriptive": "A framework assessed per component rather than as a single experiment.", "untested": "No deciding test has been performed; absence of a result is not support." }, "publishedKillConditions": [ { "conditionId": "FALS-001", "sourceLabel": "1", "name": "Embedded alignment (Eden Protocol): correction must live inside the recursive loop, not outside it · ledger PC-002", "criterion": "Demonstration of a purely external oversight mechanism that remains sufficient as capability scales: a constructive refutation of the undecidability results (arXiv:2606.28639) and of the alignment-faking failure mode ( arXiv:2412.14093 )", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - two related formal results are consistent with the premise, but they are one dependent chain (the Gumbau preprint credits Hernandez-Espinosa et al. as its conceptual origin); Hernandez-Espinosa et al. is peer-reviewed (PNAS Nexus, April 2026), the Gumbau result is a preprint, and neither tests this programme. One operational datum, 30 July 2026: Anthropic disclosed that evaluation containment failed silently and models breached three real organisations; logged at EVR-30 as context, not confirmation, because Anthropic calls it 'closer to a harness and operational failure than a model alignment failure'", "priorityClaimIds": [ "PC-002" ], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "130f80ec5f8f7b969c15e84da4ccc9dd151cb025bfd10f144a0e8573104d8550" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-002", "sourceLabel": "2", "name": "Law I · The ARC Principle (U=I×R α , the ARC Equation): recursion form determines scaling regime · Paper II", "criterion": "Systematic measurements showing scaling regime is independent of recursion form (sequential vs parallel) across architectures", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - directionally supported (Sharma & Chopra, concurrent independent work, cited always)", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.html" ], "sourceDigest": "acd9957632a673f4a4df6fd3a5338696157651653c253fcd9eea4c4ab00359dd" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-003", "sourceLabel": "3", "name": "Blinding sign-flip: unblinded AI evaluation can reverse a result's sign · Paper IV.d · run it yourself", "criterion": "Replications under the published four-layer protocol showing no evaluator-family effect on sign across models", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - single-lab exploratory pilot; replication package in preparation", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/evidence-spine.html", "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-iv-d-the-effect-of-blinding-on-ai-alignment-evaluation.html" ], "sourceDigest": "a7243f3dcb104926a94fec004d01ee164a3e1301daad9003cabe03ae9c36817b" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-004", "sourceLabel": "4", "name": "Cauchy unification of d/(d+1) derivations · Paper VII · ledger PC-036", "criterion": "A continuous solution to the multiplicative functional equation that is not a power law (mathematically foreclosed), or empirical domains systematically violating the classification (6/25 already recorded as non-matching - published)", "status": "partial", "statusText": "PARTIAL - 19/25 domains match; this tier is a descriptive tally whose analysis was not frozen in advance, and the 6 misses are published, not hidden. A separate 12-domain extension WAS preregistered, with operator class and predicted family locked per row before data extraction (17 March 2026, public repository), and scored 10/12 at p = 5.44e-4", "priorityClaimIds": [ "PC-036" ], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-vii-cauchy-unification.html" ], "sourceDigest": "852a96bcd955c10211572ccd537c61b0d32753245c7fc6b7b45e2a1492f65477" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-005", "sourceLabel": "5", "name": "Stewardship Gene: stakeholder-care prompts measurably improve ethical reasoning · Paper V", "criterion": "Blinded replications showing no effect (five nonblind single-scorer runs; the Fisher combination assumes independence that is not established, so the figure is not headlined)", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - nonblind exploratory pilot; needs independent, preregistered replication", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-v-stewardship-gene.html" ], "sourceDigest": "a518269df88e769049532cbb4d4df980678e3bfc8eb1f32e263f02d48c280f6a" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-006", "sourceLabel": "9", "name": "Parallel recursion does not compound (α par ≈0) · Paper II", "criterion": "Demonstration of super-linear capability growth from pure parallel sampling at fixed compute", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - consistent with Brown et al. (2024)", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.html" ], "sourceDigest": "891dbf9f5afe44712311db1db864f799957bc78629115bfc988909284a53bc08" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-007", "sourceLabel": "12", "name": "Sequential super-linearity (α>1) · Paper II · the retraction", "criterion": "ALREADY FIRED for the original claim - cross-architecture replication failed", "status": "retracted", "statusText": "RETRACTED α≈2.24 → corrected to α≈0.49 (bootstrap interval [-1.3, 2.9], not statistically distinguishable from zero)", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/corrections/", "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.html" ], "sourceDigest": "454c7430c5e6af2cb3cf944ecb47923882cc6060d19eca0dd8d5059686603c6e" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-008", "sourceLabel": "13", "name": "Embedded safety at zero capability cost · Paper VI", "criterion": "Replications showing consistent capability degradation from embedded correction", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - held in tested configurations; single-lab exploratory pilot", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-vi-honey-architecture.html" ], "sourceDigest": "38658b5963fdc40f19de98d7e9ac1ebfb02902f839b965ca02e6ca3404bc65f9" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-009", "sourceLabel": "15", "name": "External alignment cannot scale · Paper III", "criterion": "A scalable external verification scheme - argued to be foreclosed in the limit by the Soundness–Completeness–Tractability Trilemma (arXiv:2606.28639), a scoped and unreviewed formal argument", "status": "open-formal-consistency", "statusText": "OPEN - a scoped formal argument (single-author preprint, not peer reviewed) reaches a consistent conclusion; it does not test this programme and is not counted as confirmation", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-iii-alignment-scaling-problem.html" ], "sourceDigest": "1f2e9d291896fb61a8b9936f3b1c416e37faab65e0a85688622f71b94a911df2" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-010", "sourceLabel": "16", "name": "Recursion as cross-domain structural principle · Paper XI · the register", "criterion": "The graded evidence register failing source verification, or the pattern failing to appear in new domains where the framework predicts it", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - graded register public; no total is published", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/convergences/", "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-xi-convergence.html" ], "sourceDigest": "581d102dc1dfe5a109ce66a5bdd204c28db64682dbc93dce0ccd89dfe38b0674" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-011", "sourceLabel": "17", "name": "HRIH creation cosmology · the paper · ledger PC-005", "criterion": "Explicitly speculative and non-empirical by design; five in-principle falsifiers listed in the paper (e.g. demonstration that recursive intelligence cannot in principle influence physical constants)", "status": "speculative", "statusText": "SPECULATIVE: separable; outside the theory. Flagged as such and carrying no empirical weight: strike it entirely and the three laws, the protocol and every registered test stand unchanged", "priorityClaimIds": [ "PC-005" ], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/hrih-paper.html" ], "sourceDigest": "6c88615b9005d4da12913a55c9b30619bd07c7667ac59f822660eea97b2cefb3" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-012", "sourceLabel": "18", "name": "Moral Genome tokens (hardware-embedded ethics, TRL 0-1) · ledger PC-013", "criterion": "Proof that substrate-level enforcement is physically or economically infeasible: currently moving the OTHER way (Petrie arXiv:2509.07637; FlexHEG arXiv:2506.15093)", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - direction independently emerging in hardware security", "priorityClaimIds": [ "PC-013" ], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "2b25f28abeffe38f00c4060afa60fb8a047f634627d4fedf094bd8a28fe20a56" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-013", "sourceLabel": "IV.a", "name": "Three-tier alignment response classes under inference-time depth · Paper IV.a", "criterion": "Blinded replications showing a single monotone response class across models, with no tier structure and no reversing tier", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - single-lab; tiers held under the published protocol", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-iv-a-baked-in-vs-computed-alignment.html" ], "sourceDigest": "f8ebb61bdfe72d26d3c780e97ced6b2729fc4d953ef94fb65649fe4fc1b888c2" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-014", "sourceLabel": "IV.b", "name": "Alignment saturation is architecture-dependent · Paper IV.b", "criterion": "Uniform saturation behaviour across architectures under the same protocol", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - single-lab", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-iv-b-alignment-saturation-at-low-depth.html" ], "sourceDigest": "c64a5f6c535c68adaf8ef26d28ef65eef8dff9416d672de0806518cc7c2ff995" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-015", "sourceLabel": "IV.c", "name": "ARC-Align: a blind benchmark for depth-variable alignment · Paper IV.c", "criterion": "Demonstration that benchmark scores fail to track any independent alignment measure, or that item leakage defeats the blinding", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - benchmark public; attack it directly", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-iv-c-arc-align-benchmark.html" ], "sourceDigest": "87154b3275ef5bf48c239171a2e93269db111241102b1869cd8ca3cd9885428e" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-016", "sourceLabel": "VI", "name": "Honey Architecture: safety integrated into the objective resists costless removal · Paper VI", "criterion": "Demonstration that removing embedded safety terms leaves capability and behaviour unchanged across tested configurations", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - held in tested configurations; single-lab exploratory pilot", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-vi-honey-architecture.html" ], "sourceDigest": "20d5b0d8f5a6dc37bd260894ac2963ab64c0bce4e980b7127a190d9b21378e54" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-017", "sourceLabel": "VIII", "name": "Load-bearing test: some components carry alignment weight, others are decorative · Paper VIII", "criterion": "Replications in which no removal produces measurable degradation anywhere, making every component decorative", "status": "partial", "statusText": "PARTIAL - two of three experiments returned null and are published as such", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-viii-the-load-bearing-proof.html" ], "sourceDigest": "9bb67e5da6b1f756a2b0c21088ed028fa8ac3c3aa657ae12860254a1c241e191" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-018", "sourceLabel": "OS", "name": "Origin of scaling laws: exponents track dimensional structure · the paper", "criterion": "Domains whose measured exponents vary freely with no dimensional correspondence (see also row 4: 6/25 non-matching domains already published)", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - shares its fate with the Cauchy classification", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/on-the-origin-of-scaling-laws.html" ], "sourceDigest": "38ac87c5213488600e521333fc598d8498aa6f6f2c32f8103e32269427a7e958" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-019", "sourceLabel": "C", "name": "Polymathic Neurodivergent Profile: a six-component descriptive framework · Paper C", "criterion": "Clinical assessment failing to reproduce the component structure; one component is already marked weak in the paper itself", "status": "descriptive", "statusText": "DESCRIPTIVE - falsifiable per component; weakest component disclosed", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-c-pnp.html" ], "sourceDigest": "1d90783dfed13c086383e3c845cbbe47a86cd9f332a71d650983d38eba064d1d" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-020", "sourceLabel": "A≤2", "name": "The ARC Bound: growth under a scaling law is stable only inside a window. Above the upper edge a system reaches a finite-time singularity and destroys itself; far below it, growth fizzles. The conjecture is that the upper edge sits at α ≤ 2 · Paper I", "criterion": "An exponent above 2, sustained, on a genuinely self-improving system, while stability holds. All four terms are metered rather than asserted, because a single unmetered term is enough to make the whole criterion untriggerable. Above 2 means the 95 per cent interval excludes 2, not merely that the point estimate does: this programme's own corrected estimate of 0.49 carries the interval [−1.3, 2.9], which crosses the ceiling, so on a point-estimate reading that measurement would be scored as confirming the ARC Bound when in fact it does not test it. Sustained means across a window declared before measurement begins. A window chosen after seeing the data reopens the same escape one level down, because any counterexample can then be called too brief. Genuinely self-improving means a live recursive loop in which the system's own output feeds its own improvement. A frozen model re-prompted at increasing depth has no such loop and cannot test the ARC Bound whatever exponent it returns, which is also why the 0.49 measurement on frozen systems is outside this criterion's scope. Stability is the ARC Co-Scaling Law's condition, correction rate out-scaling drift rate, with both estimated by the same log-log slope estimator that yields the growth exponent. And the corrector's class is declared and evidenced before the run , on the same footing as the window. This term was added on 22 August 2026, hours after the other four, because the build-order argument developed the same day makes the ceiling class-dependent: a corrector drawn from the system's own training corpus is same-class, and the leverage cap of one half is a cap on THAT class, so a corrector from a different class may exceed it and carry the ceiling above two without refuting anything. Left unstated, that would have handed this criterion a fifth escape: any exponent above two could be answered with the assertion that the corrector was cross-class, which is the same shape as the assertion that the system was not stable. Declared in advance, it becomes a discriminating test instead. A SAME-CLASS system above two with stability holding refutes the ARC Bound. A CROSS-CLASS system above two does not, and instead tests the build-order prediction that structure-first raises the ceiling. One protocol, two outcomes, both informative, and neither available to a reader who picks the class after seeing the number. A transient excursion above 2 while correction has already fallen behind is the framework's predicted supercritical regime, not its refutation. Metered 22 August 2026: before that date the criterion said sustained without loss of stability and stability had no meter, so no observation could trigger it, and the ARC Bound was classified unfalsifiable in practice on 11 August. That classification is now closed. Strengthened the same day, after review found that metering stability alone left three further terms asserted: the exponent without its interval, the window without a prior declaration, and the system without a coupling requirement. Fixing one undefined word and declaring the job done would have moved the escape clause rather than closed it. Note on notation, because the estate uses one letter for several quantities: the correction rate in this criterion is the ARC Co-Scaling Law's, not the self-referential coupling that appears in the Foundational paper's Theorem 2, and not the saturation steepness of Paper X. The full register is at the operational definitions .", "status": "untested", "statusText": "UNTESTED, and one precedent needs stating carefully, because the mathematical objects are not the same. Super-linear rate equations of the form dx/dt = x^p do reach finite-time singularities, and von Foerster’s 1960 population fit was of that form, but the threshold there is p = 1 , not 2: integrate it and blow-up occurs for any exponent above one. The 2 in that paper was a fitted value for population, not a bound. The ARC relation is not a rate equation. Corrected 22 August 2026: this row previously read that the estimate sits well inside the bound, which implied a test the bound had passed and which its own interval does not support. Since 16 August 2026 the bound is stated as Law III’s conjectured value: the ceiling is the reciprocal of the corrector’s shortfall from full proportionality, α crit = 1/(1−γ), and at γ = ½ it returns two. The December lineage reaches the same family from the other side: if a fraction β of improvement is reinvested into improving the improver, the series closes as α = 1/(1−β), diverging at β = 1, so on that reading α ≤ 2 is the claim that β ≤ ½. Two arguments, one reciprocal-shortfall form; no theorem yet connects them, and that gap is itself on the record. The precedent that actually matches is from growth economics: the Golden Rule of capital accumulation has an interior optimal savings rate, because reinvesting everything starves the thing being invested in. Branching processes supply the other edge of the window, separating extinction from explosion at R₀ = 1, and critical exponents obeying derived inequalities show that bounded exponents in stable systems are orthodox. What remains conjecture, and is marked as conjecture, is the specific value ½ and whether it holds across domains. Every exponent this programme has measured sits far beneath the bound, taken on frozen substrates that suppress reinvestment by construction, so no observation yet made could have falsified it. The next test needs no funding: published growth exponents from domains whose outcome is already known, asking whether systems that persisted sit inside the window and systems that ran away or collapsed left it beforehand", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-i-arc-principle.html" ], "sourceDigest": "a6e21e22148be3b4622f813360cf2c1990185388d4c2bd3f3c3fdf5c2e185a62" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-021", "sourceLabel": "β>k", "name": "Law II · The ARC Co-Scaling Law (Paper X): recursive self-improvement is stable iff correction out-scales drift; since the paper’s v4.1 it carries an absolute-drift companion one exponent stricter · Paper X", "criterion": "A real system showing stable recursive self-improvement with decoupled (non-co-scaling) correction, or drift-free scaling without any correction", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - the author-run pilot observed a coupled-versus-decoupled difference but did not estimate beta or k, and its judge shared the subject's provider family; needs a funded, independent multi-model sweep", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-x-coupled-coscaling-correction.html" ], "sourceDigest": "075edef6879715772eb2baf198e6d56d8d50933dcc18a5f3fba5a5168c6a436a" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-022", "sourceLabel": "0.5", "name": "The zero-parameter null: the measured recursive-depth exponent sits on a no-framework prediction · Paper I and Paper II", "criterion": "The programme's best cross-architecture measurement, an alpha of approximately 0.49 for sequential recursion, sits almost exactly on a zero-parameter null. If each reasoning pass is an independent noisy draw and errors average out, the central limit theorem gives error falling as R to the power minus one half, so the predicted exponent is 0.5 with no compounding, no leverage and no framework. This condition fires, and the compounding interpretation is withdrawn, if a pre-specified test capable of separating the two returns the null's prediction rather than a stated deviation from 0.5", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN, and raised by this programme against itself. Nobody put this to us: it is a direct comparison of our own headline number against a null that requires no theory, recorded internally on 8 August 2026 and public from 15 August 2026. It is stated because a referee would see it within minutes, and because a claim we cannot discriminate should not sit unmarked beside claims we can. It is not a retraction: a measurement consistent with two hypotheses shows the measurement lacks discriminating power, not that the simpler hypothesis is true. What it does is convert the research target from measuring alpha into the sharper task of predicting a specified deviation from 0.5 under stated conditions, which the artefact-mediated recursive-depth design is built to deliver and the present measurement cannot. Until such a test runs, the compounding reading of an alpha near 0.49 carries no more evidential weight than independent-sample averaging", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-i-arc-principle.html", "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.html" ], "sourceDigest": "044e2a43ae0d800b8bd0e5d7e7bf19f42555e82613716613f743a41a5bbf002f" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-023", "sourceLabel": "ρ", "name": "Correlated correction channels: the one-half exponent assumes corrections aggregate like independent samples · Paper I and the synthesis", "criterion": "The ceiling is derived by taking one half as the best an internal corrector can reach, on the reasoning that accumulated corrections combine the way independent measurements do. That step fails in both directions. Positively correlated corrections repeat the same mistake and aggregate worse than independence, so the exponent falls below one half. Negatively correlated corrections aggregate better than independence, which is the textbook antithetic-variates result, so an exponent above one half is permitted and the ceiling moves. This condition fires, and the specific value of two is withdrawn, if a pre-specified measurement of the correction exponent on a system whose correction channels are characterised returns a value materially away from one half in either direction while the derivation still asserts one half", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN, and raised by this programme against itself as the single most likely point of failure. The author’s dated priors of 9 August 2026 rate the claim that the value is exactly two as a genuine gamble, materially less than even, and name this channel as the reason. A parallel-channel measurement near zero exists in the programme’s own data, but it is not offered as support here, for two stated reasons: it measures a different object, whether many independent generations aggregate under majority voting rather than whether successive corrections of one trajectory reduce error near-independently, and one of the six models measured contradicts the pattern at 0.31 with an r-squared of 0.93. So the mechanism is named, the derivation’s dependence on it is disclosed, and the deciding measurement is not yet filed. What follows from it is architectural: a corrector built on the same substrate as the system it corrects cannot be anti-correlated with itself, sharing its architecture, training distribution and blind spots, so one half is a ceiling for that class rather than a typical value, while a corrector drawn from a different class may exceed it. That is a claim about real systems and not a theorem, and it is the thing being tested. Two outside readers have since rederived the same objection independently, on 15 August 2026 and 26 August 2026, neither having been shown the condition first; their rederivations are recorded here beside the condition they anticipate, because an objection the programme raised against itself and outsiders then rediscovered unprompted is the strongest form the objection can take", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [ "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/paper-i-arc-principle.html", "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/the-synthesis/" ], "sourceDigest": "7e93a4d4fb2194fbdac45453d9d03d94af7ebc6f105476d3c0f02aecdf06bca4" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-024", "sourceLabel": "024", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · The conjunction priority kill: the priority claim dies to any earlier document that already holds components one to four", "criterion": "One earlier document, of any earlier date and by any author, in which the first four components already sit together. That invitation does not expire, and every corpus searched is named in the statement paper.", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - the invitation stands; the corpora searched are named; statement paper section 5/7", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "fedbb4581ebf0c81658b323c5b1a4004ef7cf692f602b757554aa237e9bf141f" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-025", "sourceLabel": "025", "name": "Tier 1 · Decisive trials · The corrector-class ratio and the same-class cap (the eclipse instrument): correction across classes has to scale faster than correction within one", "criterion": "The registered primary is the difference in correction exponents between the two corrector classes, with the ratio secondary behind a denominator floor. The prediction is refuted by the reverse ordering, the ANTI-DIRECTIONAL verdict, or by a class difference whose interval lies wholly below the registered support threshold. An interval covering the null at the registered precision is INCONCLUSIVE, the roughly one-in-five outcome the registration prices in advance, and is reported as a failed attempt to confirm rather than as a refutation; the registration also discloses that the affirmative equivalence verdict does not fire under realistic between-target heterogeneity on this roster. Separately, one same-class corrector whose leverage measures wholly above one half refutes the same-class cap and moves the value of the ceiling; the ceiling relation itself stands", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registered instrument awaiting human submission; the author's own pilot leans towards the null at present and states as much", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "d878137a43d39846600a449f7fdb649807e688a8b921314e0b25f054a8e03d14" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-026", "sourceLabel": "026", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · Law III sets out a relation between quantities measurable apart from each other, and is not a definition", "criterion": "Wherever both quantities can be obtained, the relation breaks if alpha (read off growth trajectories) and gamma (read off paired capability-correction protocols), each measured on its own, fail to satisfy alpha_crit = 1/(1-gamma) (the corrected 16 August 2026 form); missing is something a relation can do and a definition cannot", "status": "untested", "statusText": "UNTESTED - no measurement of gamma exists yet; what is claimed is the relation, while the value two remains the conjecture", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "c830e1a4d06fe7a2dafed418faa9a532055d535a231d4d119898ee727c1f446a" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-027", "sourceLabel": "027", "name": "Tier 1 · Decisive trials · Corrector-class audit, H1 (study-ac): how the determined-exponent case fares in systems already deployed", "criterion": "Falls if the audit turns up class 3 (determined-exponent) mechanisms in production deployments at more than 10 per cent of the inventory; that result would beat confirmation for interest, since beta_X would then be open to field measurement straight away", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registration awaiting human submission", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "8899de33af800c6f726eaf993547aa08a669484b1853ff87ebd12f7fa581b8a6" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-028", "sourceLabel": "028", "name": "Tier 1 · Decisive trials · Corrector-class taxonomy exhaustiveness, H3 (study-ac): no mechanism may fall outside the four classes", "criterion": "A single mechanism the decision tree cannot place is enough to refute it; a fifth dependency would collapse the elimination argument in Paper XIII section 8, and withdrawal of that argument is pre-committed", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registration awaiting human submission; the withdrawal consequence is registered", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "4a2d5e904760380f0e3ab57b362e68282de0f9e3e697267c9556cc4cd4d419fd" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-029", "sourceLabel": "029", "name": "Tier 1 · Decisive trials · Genesis-governor joint necessity, H1 (study-u)", "criterion": "Survives only where the both-arm comes out above each of the remaining three arms AND the interaction contrast is positive with its 97.5 per cent interval clear of zero; let either condition go and joint necessity is refuted, and the author's own registration names the adverse result as the most likely one", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registration awaiting human submission", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "5f670e0626d9bdd421be7dcba4adb1b7ac4a87d95f0e8c677116c775b413c277" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-030", "sourceLabel": "030", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · There has to be an R-star crossover (foundational F7)", "criterion": "Find no linear-to-super-linear transition anywhere and the transitional-regime prediction is falsified; R-star is the mechanistic marker that sets recursive amplification apart from plain redundancy", "status": "untested", "statusText": "UNTESTED", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "8d02c893a34a0a4cb0ef2a31d618d237007c65556ffb7eae647e2a2ed9509a0a" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-031", "sourceLabel": "031", "name": "Tier 1 · Measured legs · Sequential comes out above parallel (foundational F1)", "criterion": "Should alpha_seq sit at or beneath alpha_par consistently from one system to the next, the compositional-mechanism claim is refuted", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - so far it has held without exception across the six blinded models; any new system can refute it", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "2fe3a8f35c4977453ea57c86471621750d74644db7d00b076dd9d7a9f9fc271e" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-032", "sourceLabel": "032", "name": "Tier 1 · Measured legs · Per-domain sequential advantage, H1 (paper-ii registration)", "criterion": "Support requires the bootstrap 95 per cent interval on the sequential-minus-parallel exponent difference to sit wholly above zero in EVERY domain tested; one domain is enough to lose it, which is exactly why it was registered", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registration awaiting human submission", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "9d123b449c8ce8a54549f4d0eb10ee78b1e9f646aaf8058a3cd8126b87150ee0" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-033", "sourceLabel": "033", "name": "Tier 1 · Measured legs · Embedded wins over post-hoc on both thresholds at once, H2 (study-v)", "criterion": "Miss either registered threshold and it is refuted: drift in the post-hoc arm has to come out above 15 per cent AND the deepest-layer arm has to remain under 5 per cent", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registration awaiting human submission", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "add114de81c276c56c16bf46b25ca83b6213519ee43e899ea83b3964a2dc5142" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-034", "sourceLabel": "034", "name": "Tier 1 · Measured legs · Leaf venation at d = 2 (foundational F12)", "criterion": "The biological derivation is refuted wherever alpha in leaf-venation networks departs significantly from 1.5. BOUNDARY NOTE: it stands as an open verification item, recorded at build, whether 1.5 is derived in-house or is instead the West-family reciprocal form (d+1)/d; this row goes out with that question posed rather than settled", "status": "untested", "statusText": "UNTESTED - the provenance of the derivation is flagged for checking against foundational section 5.4", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "136605da5749f435664c69de9bae4afde04c09cfd8a14fb745054f749cedad35" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-035", "sourceLabel": "035", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · The identity takes a multiplicative form (make it additive and the ARC Equation dies)", "criterion": "Show intelligence and recursion to combine additively instead of multiplicatively and U = I x R^alpha is itself dead", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "0cb4365bc008e097f7e6cffe33abea42f5024a5dc832065ebe90b2272adaaccb" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-036", "sourceLabel": "036", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · The mechanism: the exponent as measured has to agree with alpha = 1/(1-beta)", "criterion": "Where the measured exponent departs systematically from what the composition parameter predicts, the mechanism is refuted, and that holds even in cases where the form itself survives", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "433043748f08035a02e2b6af68f213d5cf9fd0ee8bfcd5a5ee756869cca2aa2b" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-037", "sourceLabel": "037", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · Nothing outside the ARC family fits better", "criterion": "The family claim goes should a functional form from outside the family fit the test-time compute data materially better across models", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "ebc6dd6d343a119bc56d6a26a8a874772b59b39706eb0e265e592f817bd24410" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-038", "sourceLabel": "038", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · Withdrawal on channel disagreement (study-ag): the gamma-structure unification", "criterion": "Disagreement between the registered channels pulls the unification off every surface it has reached, given the same prominence the framing received", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registration awaiting human submission; the withdrawal is pre-committed", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "48e7f07ceaa2b5efe60f4a3f1a84ddd2c11051bf52068d2226f9c57b632205bc" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-039", "sourceLabel": "039", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · Paper X F1: a phase boundary has to be there", "criterion": "Where long-run behaviour shifts smoothly as the compounding coupling changes and no threshold turns up, the stability law's claim about a boundary is dead", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - a sharp boundary is what the model predicts, and smooth variation kills it", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "8c2707209aec70a3b6acca74a5f750503f24ea69eb6dc9938e8da17ed75bb73d" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-040", "sourceLabel": "040", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · Paper X F2: what decides is the margin and not raw speed", "criterion": "Should divergence follow raw speed instead of the scaling margin, the fast diverging and the slow converging whatever the coupling, the co-scaling reading is dead", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "ee86f27670e74833ebfb789129d410a79639f0fb62d2aa233e7e085a70ed9135" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-041", "sourceLabel": "041", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · Paper X F6: the spectral threshold (Theorem 5)", "criterion": "Find the correction operator's null axis suppressed in E6 as well, and the spectral threshold theorem is false, with misalignment failing to behave the way the model says it does", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "9e419e837ff35e354a2e209643e6d02001ddcf969cf56c680d0af535c002f42e" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-042", "sourceLabel": "042", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · Reciprocity and the cap-boundary joint test (study-ae H1/H2)", "criterion": "H1 goes if the combined interval sits entirely outside plus-minus delta in any primary same-class cell; H2 goes jointly if either the cap interval or the boundary interval sits entirely above its registered value in any same-class cell", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registration awaiting human submission; the instruments have to clear the separability battery before anything else", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "ed6b25f2d1f30107051f4fb11fdfe1e706e7571a50c54298a711e23f69587502" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-043", "sourceLabel": "043", "name": "Tier 1 · The laws · Gamma constancy versus the corridor derivative (study-af H1)", "criterion": "This is the registered instrument for sign(dgamma/dalpha): a slope interval falling clear of the ZERO_TREND_BAND of 0.05 in slope units establishes that constancy has been departed from and fixes the direction, while a slope interval inside the band reads as constancy on that substrate", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - drafted registration awaiting human submission; this single measurement fixes both the ceiling's direction and the stability class it belongs to", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "014f1b479e0ee615b3b197c29a3467fc6ba428a30b6cbccf7f001e997a1a54af" }, { "conditionId": "FALS-044", "sourceLabel": "044", "name": "Tier 2 · Eden Protocol engineering · The monitoring-removal test (F2): the delta between embedded and external", "criterion": "Prediction F2 is falsified where the measured embedded-versus-external delta comes out no different across the four registered models", "status": "open", "statusText": "OPEN - an engineering test registered at a milestone", "priorityClaimIds": [], "relatedUrls": [], "sourceDigest": "5a7226310a32f3eb7c10cb4e3d00bc87257959744feae825a5f84e92fd4bffc1" } ], "claims": [ { "claimId": "PC-001", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-001/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "visible Gmail origination fields establishes existence-by-date, not DKIM-authenticated authorship. The manuscript identifies structural directions, not specific RL-training or experimental mechanisms. State which artefact is meant: the sent-side export preserves no authentication headers, while the recipient-form object carries sender-DKIM and Google ARC fields whose signature mathematics verify under the keys returned at the selectors on the audit date. When quoting Google's recorded verdict, quote the ARC-sealed ARC-Authentication-Results header, never the unsealed Authentication-Results. Existence-by-date only; not authorship; not an RFC 3161 timestamp.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-002", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-002/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "specified-in-published-falsification-register", "criteria": [ "Demonstration of a purely external oversight mechanism that remains sufficient as capability scales: a constructive refutation of the undecidability results (arXiv:2606.28639) and of the alignment-faking failure mode ( arXiv:2412.14093 )" ], "sourceFields": [ "published-falsification-dashboard" ], "publishedConditionIds": [ "FALS-001" ], "publishedStatus": "open", "publishedStatusText": "OPEN - two related formal results are consistent with the premise, but they are one dependent chain (the Gumbau preprint credits Hernandez-Espinosa et al. as its conceptual origin); Hernandez-Espinosa et al. is peer-reviewed (PNAS Nexus, April 2026), the Gumbau result is a preprint, and neither tests this programme. One operational datum, 30 July 2026: Anthropic disclosed that evaluation containment failed silently and models breached three real organisations; logged at EVR-30 as context, not confirmation, because Anthropic calls it 'closer to a harness and operational failure than a model alignment failure'" }, "limitations": "Constitutional AI (Anthropic 2022) is prior work on embedded-values training. Do not frame as invention of embedded alignment as a category. Existence-by-date timestamp only.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-003", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-003/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Recursion as a structural principle is prior work. Priority is over Eastwood's specific naming and cross-domain framing under the label 'ARC Principle'.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-004", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-004/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Constitutional AI (Anthropic 2022) is software-level parallel prior work on value-embedded training. Hardware ceiling absolute: published two-sentence concept only, TRL 0-1, no prototype, no enabling detail drafted.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-005", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-005/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "specified-in-published-falsification-register", "criteria": [ "Explicitly speculative and non-empirical by design; five in-principle falsifiers listed in the paper (e.g. demonstration that recursive intelligence cannot in principle influence physical constants)" ], "sourceFields": [ "published-falsification-dashboard" ], "publishedConditionIds": [ "FALS-011" ], "publishedStatus": "speculative", "publishedStatusText": "SPECULATIVE: separable; outside the theory. Flagged as such and carrying no empirical weight: strike it entirely and the three laws, the protocol and every registered test stand unchanged" }, "limitations": "Deep prior work: Teilhard de Chardin (Omega Point), Wheeler (participatory universe), Smolin (cosmological natural selection), Crane 1994 (meduso-anthropic principle; the closest single precursor), Harrison 1995, Gardner 2003. Works placing a creating or normatively authoritative intelligence AHEAD of us in time, each dated by a third-party record rather than by the author's own labelling: Vidal 2008 (cosmological artificial selection; NOT YET VERIFIED AT SOURCE by this programme); ChrisM, 'God in the Loop', LessWrong 15 September 2020 (Internet Archive capture 16 September 2020), the closest prior document at three components, holding intelligence-as-mechanism, the closed loop and the creator ahead, and declining the real cosmos explicitly; Bostrom, 'AI Creation and the Cosmic Host' (Internet Archive capture 7 August 2024, content digest unchanged through January 2025), holding the creator ahead and cosmogenic stakes but no universe-creation, no loop and no correction requirement. The creator-ahead reading is accordingly the most crowded component of the frame, not the least. On the correction component: al-Ghazali's systematisation of Ash'ari occasionalism (Tahafut al-Falasifa, eleventh century) holds that substances do not persist by their own nature and are recreated at every instant, so that persistence requires continuous intelligent action; adjacent rather than held, because occasionalism has no errors to correct, but it is the closest anything in any tradition comes to this component and no surface may claim the component unprecedented without citing it. Nearest modern approach is the autodidactic-universe model (Alexander, Lanier, Smolin and others, arXiv 2104.03902, 29 March 2021), which is learning rather than correction under existential threat. Priority is over the specific formulation and the 'HRIH' naming; category ownership of participatory cosmology is not claimed, and no component of the frame is claimed severally. Self-labelled speculative. Sweep gaps open: five self-published items returned HTTP 403 and remain unread, and one 2026 citation on parametric intelligence has no bibliographic entry in the source citing it, so no assertion is made that no prior document holds the conjunction; the stated position is that no verified match has been found.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-006", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-006/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Convergent event, not caused by the manuscript. Do not phrase as 'predicted the Willow experiment'; the 8 Dec anchor identifies only a directional recursion-drives-capability thesis. The evidence register reclassified the underlying result as prior work on 2 August 2026 (preprint 24 August 2024); every one-day statement must carry the preprint date.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-007", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-007/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Any citation of Anthropic's 78 per cent alignment-faking figure must include both the RL-training condition and the 12 per cent baseline, per the site's truth gate. Do not claim Eastwood predicted the specific mechanism Anthropic measured. Existence-by-date only.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-008", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-008/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Convergent, not causal. The anchor supports only the directional claim about sequential-recursive processing.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-009", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-009/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "April 2025 postdates Anthropic's December 2024 alignment-faking paper by four months; any claim of predicting software-bypass mechanisms at April 2025 is convergent analysis, not prediction. Hardware ceiling absolute.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-010", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-010/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Balanced-ternary computing is prior work (Setun 1958). Priority is over the specific published framing under this title on this date, not over ternary logic or hardware architecture. Hardware ceiling absolute.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-011", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-011/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "The early sequential alpha of approximately 2.24 was retracted; the robust v13 estimate is approximately 0.49 (sub-linear; interval [-1.3, 2.9]); alpha > 1 remains an open dated prediction. Do not present as 'validated to R squared = 1.0' (algebraic identity check only). The retired label 'Eastwood Equation' must not be used on non-book-marketing surfaces. Bare exponential form alpha = d/(d+1) is prior work.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-012", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-012/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Concepts date to the April 2025 manuscript in development terms but are publicly established via the January 2026 book. The comprehensive markdown and knowledge/concepts.json use partially divergent names for the same 37 items; reconciliation is unfinished. Do not describe as peer-reviewed.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-013", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-013/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "specified-in-published-falsification-register", "criteria": [ "Proof that substrate-level enforcement is physically or economically infeasible: currently moving the OTHER way (Petrie arXiv:2509.07637; FlexHEG arXiv:2506.15093)" ], "sourceFields": [ "published-falsification-dashboard" ], "publishedConditionIds": [ "FALS-012" ], "publishedStatus": "open", "publishedStatusText": "OPEN - direction independently emerging in hardware security" }, "limitations": "Hardware root-of-trust and trusted-execution-environment attestation are established prior work on the hardware-primitives side. Priority is limited to the alignment-token application framing under the name 'Embedded Correction'. Hardware ceiling absolute: no implementation, layout, architecture, or fabrication detail.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-014", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-014/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Balanced-ternary computing is prior work (Setun 1958). Do not use language such as 'invented ternary logic' or 'ternary hardware'. Hardware ceiling absolute.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-015", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-015/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Nested feedback architectures are prior work. Priority strictly on the specific named formulation.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-016", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-016/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Substantial prior work exists in export-controls discourse (BIS October 2022 controls; CHIPS Act commentary). Do not use retired phrasings ('four companies control ALL advanced chips' or 'four companies control 100 per cent of advanced semiconductor manufacturing'), which the register flags retired.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-017", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-017/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Priority is over the specific naming and structural proposal, not treaty adoption. Do not describe as adopted, ratified, or supported by any government.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-018", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-018/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Not validated engineering practice; a proposed framing only.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-019", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-019/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Proposed protocol only; not externally validated or industry-standard.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-020", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-020/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Priority is over the specific vow-formulation and stewardship framing, not over the general idea of value declarations for AI systems.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-021", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-021/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Priority is over the specific covenant-formulation only.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-022", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-022/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Do not conflate print, ebook, and BBC broadcast dates (2 Jan, 6 Jan, 7 Jan respectively).", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-023", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-023/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Convergence, not causation.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-024", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-024/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Parallel-recursion alpha ~ 0 result carries status 'needs-replication'. Cite Paper III by its own DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/HQCGF, which resolves to \"Paper III: The Alignment Scaling Problem\" (verified live and public against the OSF API on 1 August 2026), not by the programme DOI.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-025", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-025/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Earlier unblinded single-model alpha of approximately 2.24 has been publicly retracted and corrected to approximately 0.49 (interval [-1.3, 2.9]) under blinding; retraction sits at the top of the falsification dashboard. Bare d/(d+1) exponent is prior work.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-026", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-026/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Do not phrase as 'proven'; defensible verbs are 'reported' or 'observed'. In-panel replication only; external replication outstanding.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-027", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-027/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Never cite 2.24 as a current finding; always pair with the retraction. Correct framing: Eastwood published, then self-corrected, an early single-model estimate - a positive integrity signal, not a novelty claim.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-028", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-028/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Do not claim 'super-linear' or 'positive'; do not omit the wide bootstrap CI (interval [-1.3, 2.9]) when citing 0.49.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-029", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-029/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "First-published in this specific formulation on this specific date only; do not claim sole discovery. Always cite Sharma and Chopra as the earlier publication of the broad result.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-030", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-030/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Do not claim a first industry-wide panel design.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-031", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-031/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Use verbs 'argued', 'proposed', 'reported', 'provides evidence for'; not 'proved'. Precursor prose in the 8 Dec 2024 manuscript is convergent, not causal against Anthropic. Do not present as an established scaling law.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-032", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-032/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Do not claim invention of the orthogonality intuition; scope priority to the specific empirical treatment on this date.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-033", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-033/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Do not claim priority over layered alignment thinking in general.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-034", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-034/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Do not claim recursion as a novel concept; novelty is the specific published cross-domain framing under this label on this date.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-035", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-035/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Priority is over the synthesis observation on this date only; do not claim Eastwood produced the four programmes' results.", "correctionIds": [ "AQ-021" ] }, { "claimId": "PC-036", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-036/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "specified-in-published-falsification-register", "criteria": [ "A continuous solution to the multiplicative functional equation that is not a power law (mathematically foreclosed), or empirical domains systematically violating the classification (6/25 already recorded as non-matching - published)" ], "sourceFields": [ "published-falsification-dashboard" ], "publishedConditionIds": [ "FALS-004" ], "publishedStatus": "partial", "publishedStatusText": "PARTIAL - 19/25 domains match; this tier is a descriptive tally whose analysis was not frozen in advance, and the 6 misses are published, not hidden. A separate 12-domain extension WAS preregistered, with operator class and predicted family locked per row before data extraction (17 March 2026, public repository), and scored 10/12 at p = 5.44e-4" }, "limitations": "Do not claim invention of the d/(d+1) form; scope priority strictly to the AI-capability application on this date.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-037", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-037/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "The withdrawn expanded specification is not the public record; the withdrawal notice is. Do not reference or paraphrase enabling hardware detail from the withdrawn document under any circumstance. Hardware ceiling absolute.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-038", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-038/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "Convergent direction only. Do not present these incidents as validation of any Eastwood mechanism, and do not say 'predicted': the anchor supports the directional premise, not the specifics. Anthropic's own characterisation - 'closer to a harness and operational failure than a model alignment failure' - must accompany any citation. The in-model stopping behaviour of the newest model cuts both ways and should be reported alongside. Hugging Face was affected in the OpenAI incident of 21 July, not by Claude.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-039", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-039/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "The law before the value: state the reciprocal relation first, the digit two second. Never quote the book's printed R-squared as evidence for the critical exponent being two; the book printed the square without deriving it, and the derivation arrived through the reciprocal eighteen months later. Never say the ceiling has been measured on real correctors: the value two is entailed under the same-class independence assumption, which is not itself a result. Never write 'one number does two jobs' or 'measured two independent ways ... must agree' as if still live; both are withdrawn. Never write 'runaway' on research surfaces: say 'unbounded growth'. Aim tests at the assumption, not the digit. The cross-class ratio on the register has not been measured on real data.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-040", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-040/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "The mechanism rests on an assumption named same-class independence. It is a conjecture, not a measurement. Never present the reciprocal-of-correction-exponent ceiling as an established scaling law. Never present the digit two as the primary claim: the primary claim is the reciprocal relation, and the digit is what the relation returns under the independence assumption.", "correctionIds": [] }, { "claimId": "PC-041", "claimUrl": "https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/claims/pc-041/", "claimStatus": "public-record", "evidenceStatus": "not-classified-in-canonical-ledger", "falsification": { "status": "not-specified-in-canonical-ledger", "criteria": [], "sourceFields": [], "publishedConditionIds": [] }, "limitations": "None of these registrations has been submitted or accepted: the programme's rule is that the AI prepares drafts and only a human files. Any public sentence implying N registrations are filed is false until submissions begin, and this ledger says so first. The cross-class to same-class correction-exponent ratio has not been measured on real data; never describe it as measured. Preregistrations are drafted and awaiting human submission; never say 'filed on OSF'.", "correctionIds": [] } ] }